CME GROUP (CME)·Q4 2025 Earnings Summary
CME Group Posts Fourth Consecutive Record Year as Metals Trading Surges 114%
February 4, 2026 · by Fintool AI Agent
CME Group delivered its fourth consecutive year of record revenue, adjusted net income, and adjusted EPS, beating Q4 2025 estimates on both the top and bottom line. The world's largest derivatives marketplace reported quarterly revenue of $1.65 billion (+8% YoY) and adjusted EPS of $2.77 (+10% YoY), each modestly ahead of consensus expectations. CEO Terry Duffy called it "quite simply the most successful year in CME Group's history."
Did CME Group Beat Earnings?
Yes — CME beat on both revenue and EPS for the 8th consecutive quarter.
The revenue beat was driven by record trading volumes and pricing discipline. Clearing and transaction fees reached $1.3 billion, up 8% YoY. The average rate per contract was $0.707. Adjusted operating income hit $1.1 billion (67% margin), with adjusted EPS of $2.77 — up 10% from Q4 2024.
Ask Fintool AI AgentWhat Changed From Last Quarter?
Q4 2025 showed a meaningful recovery from Q3 2025's seasonal softness:
Key shifts:
- Metals exploded: Q4 metals ADV of 1.44M contracts represented 114% YoY growth, driven by gold price volatility and precious metals hedging demand.
- Equity indexes rebounded: ADV jumped 23% sequentially to 7.7M contracts as election-related volatility and year-end positioning drove activity.
- Interest rates normalized: ADV of 13.0M contracts was down 3% from Q3 as Fed rate path became clearer.
What Did Management Say?
CEO Terry Duffy emphasized the record-breaking results with a clear strategic vision:
"2025 marked our fifth consecutive year of record volume... This growth was broad-based, including all-time records in our interest rate, energy, metals, agricultural, and crypto complexes. It was also a record year for our international business."
On capital efficiencies:
"In the most recent quarter, our customers' average daily margin savings reached $80 billion across all six asset classes, representing an increase of approximately $20 billion over the past year. The ability to offset margin across asset classes isn't just a nice benefit. It's a necessity for our clients."
Strategic priorities for 2026:
- CME Securities Clearing — SEC-approved, launching ahead of Treasury clearing mandate
- CME-FICC cross-margining — Client expansion in early 2026, unlocking more capital efficiencies
- 24/7 cryptocurrency trading — Launching next quarter for entire crypto suite
- Event Contracts — Retail expansion through FanDuel and 120+ distribution partners
Ask Fintool AI AgentFull Year 2025 Highlights
CME achieved records across all key profitability metrics — the fifth consecutive year of record volumes:
Market data revenue surpassed $800 million for the first time, up 13% from 2024 — marking the 31st consecutive quarter of growth. Q4 market data revenue reached a record $208 million (+15% YoY).
Segment Performance: Metals Steals the Show
Q4 2025 Average Daily Volume by product:
Geographic growth was led by Asia (+18% YoY) and EMEA (+6% YoY), with non-U.S. ADV reaching 8.3 million contracts.
Capital Returns & Balance Sheet
CME continues to prioritize shareholder returns:
- Dividends paid in 2025: $3.9 billion
- Q4 2025 dividends: $455 million
- Share repurchases: $256M in Q4 2025, plus $276M in 2026 YTD
- OSTTRA proceeds: Board approved using remaining $1.3B toward share repurchases over time
- Cash position: $4.6 billion (including OSTTRA proceeds)
- Annual variable dividend: Declaration aligned with Q1 regular dividend (next week)
The balance sheet shows total assets of $198.4 billion (vs $137.4 billion at year-end 2024), with the increase largely driven by higher performance bonds and guaranty fund contributions held on behalf of clearing members.
How Did the Stock React?
CME shares touched an all-time high of $296.16 during the session and closed at $293.07 (+0.79%). After-hours trading pushed the stock to $295.96, up an additional ~1%.
The muted reaction despite the beats reflects elevated expectations heading into the print — CME was already trading near all-time highs with a forward P/E of ~25x.
Q&A Highlights: What Analysts Wanted to Know
On customer health amid metals volatility (Dan Fannon, Jefferies):
Terry Duffy highlighted that when CME raised margins on silver, the market continued making new highs rather than selling off — a sign of healthy retail and institutional participation. Derek Sammann added that "institutional base is growing double digits" and open interest is "steady to increasing" — indicators of a "risk-on environment."
On prediction markets and regulatory stance (Patrick Moley, Piper Sandler):
Duffy was emphatic about CME's legal strategy: "The last thing I'm going to have CME Group do is get tied up in a bunch of legal battles in court over sports. That's not traditionally our business." He confirmed Chairman Selig is "committed to overseeing this product" as legal swaps under CFTC regulation. Tim McCourt noted new institutional market makers are reaching out specifically for event contracts — a positive signal for liquidity.
On AI and market data durability (Bill Katz, TD Cowen):
Julie Winkler broke down market data revenue growth: 50% from new user expansion, 25% from product innovation (cloud delivery, new datasets), and 25% from pricing integrity. On AI disruption risk, Duffy was direct: "We are not in some of those other ancillary businesses that could be potentially disruptive by AI. We actually believe we're in a situation where AI could enhance our customer, enhance our business going forward, not disintermediate or disrupt it."
On tokenized collateral (Michael Cyprys, Morgan Stanley):
Duffy revealed CME is working with Google on tokenized cash launching this year, plus exploring its own coin for a decentralized network. On accepting tokens as margin: "We are not going to put the enterprise at risk by taking something that we can't get our arms around on a token... If you were to give me a token from a systemically important financial institution, I would probably be more comfortable than maybe a third or fourth-tier bank."
On Treasury clearing and cross-margining (Ken Worthington, J.P. Morgan):
The CME-FICC cross-margining program has 18 firms participating with $1.5 billion in daily savings. Client expansion is "operationally ready" pending SEC approval. Duffy emphasized: "Our arrangement with FICC... has upticked at FICC in recent months with new participants coming into it. We were around $1 billion a day with just the FICC offsets. That's upticked several hundred million... in the last couple of months."
Ask Fintool AI Agent2026 Outlook & Expense Guidance
Management provided specific 2026 guidance for the first time:
Key expense drivers for 2026:
- 24/7 crypto trading infrastructure
- Securities clearing (CME Securities Clearing launch)
- Event contracts platform scaling
Lynne Fitzpatrick noted that going forward, CME will evaluate transaction fees "on a regular basis" and may make changes throughout the year rather than consolidating in December — a shift toward real-time pricing discipline.
Growth Initiatives Update
Event Contracts (Prediction Markets):
- 68 million contracts traded in 6 weeks since December launch
- 7+ million market-related contracts (non-sports)
- FanDuel Predicts app live; DraftKings predictions connected
- 120-130 additional retail partners in onboarding pipeline
Cryptocurrency Expansion:
- Q4 crypto ADV: 379,000 contracts/day (+92% YoY), $13B notional daily
- New launches Feb 9: Cardano, Chainlink, Stellar futures
- 24/7 trading launching next quarter for entire crypto suite
Micro Products:
- Q4 ADV: 4.4 million contracts/day (+59% YoY)
- 1-ounce gold contract: 66,000/day
- 100-ounce silver contract launching next week
Google Cloud Migration:
- Q4 spending: $29M (mostly consumption charges)
- 2025 total: ~$100M
- Non-ultra-low-latency migration completing early 2026
- Purpose-built Chicago region for ultra-low-latency: client testing in 2027
Forward Catalysts to Watch
- Fed policy uncertainty: Any resurgence in rate volatility would benefit interest rate volumes
- Metals volatility: Gold and precious metals momentum continues into 2026 — silver made new historic highs despite margin increases
- Treasury clearing mandate: SEC approval for client cross-margining expected this year; FICC offsets already growing
- Crypto expansion: 24/7 trading launch in Q1 2026, new coin listings Feb 9
- Prediction markets: 68M contracts in first 6 weeks; 120+ distribution partners in pipeline
Ask Fintool AI AgentKey Takeaways
✓ Beat estimates — Revenue +0.5%, Adjusted EPS +0.7% vs consensus
✓ Fourth consecutive record year — Revenue, adjusted operating income, and adjusted EPS all at all-time highs
✓ Metals drove upside — 114% YoY volume growth in metals, the largest contributor to Q4 beat
✓ Pricing held up — RPC of $0.707 exceeded Q4 2024's $0.701 despite volume mix shift
✓ Capital returns continue — $3.9B returned in 2025, nearly $30B since 2012
Data sourced from CME Group 8-K filed February 4, 2026, S&P Global, and analyst estimates.
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